北半球温带气旋的模拟和预估研究Ⅱ:6个CMIP5耦合模式预估的未来RCP4.5情景下的变化     

张颖娴  丁一汇 《气象学报》2014,72(6):1171-1185

利用 CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）的6个气候耦合模式中等排放情景———RCP4?5（典型浓度路径4?5）下的模拟结果对北半球温带气旋数目、风暴路径和强度的未来变化进行了研究分析。结果表明：（1）相对于20世纪后半叶,RCP4?5情景下的2053—2100年,虽然各模式的模拟结果存在一定的区域性差异,但共同显示了至21世纪末北半球整体温带气旋生成将减少,较低纬度减少得更显著。（2）模式较一致地模拟出未来北半球温带气旋的中心气压有降低的趋势,涡度强度将线性减弱。大多数的模式模拟得到北大西洋风暴轴未来将继续向极地偏移,但强度主要将减弱;过半的模式显示北太平洋风暴轴也将向极地偏移,强度变化则随季节的不同而不同。（3）6个模式的模拟结果均显示对流层中高层斜压区未来将向高层和高纬度扩展,南半球的变化更为显著。斜压区的变化在某种程度上反映了风暴轴的类似变化,因此, 这也支持了北太平洋和北大西洋风暴路径未来可能向极地偏移的结论。RCP4?5情景下北半球整体温带气旋活动将显著减少,但斜压区和风暴轴向高纬度的偏移将使较低纬度未来温带气旋活动减少得更为显著。  相似文献   

Study of deposition of fine sediment within the pores of a coarse sediment bed stream     

N.K.KHULLAR  U.C.KOTHYARI  K.G.Ranga RAJU 《国际泥沙研究》2013,28(2):210-219

Elaborate experiments were performed in a 30 m long, 0.5 m deep and 0.2 m wide laboratory flume to study the process of infiltration of fine sediment into the pores of coarse sediment forming the channel bed material. Different concentrations of suspended load of fine sediment of size 0.064 mm were passed over the channel bed made up of three different types of coarse sediments; two uniform and one nonuniform. The proportion of fine sediment infiltrated into the pores of bed material for each equilibrium concentration of suspended load of fine sediment in the flow was studied during several experimental runs. The proportion of fine sediment within the pores of bed material increased with an increase in the equilibrium concentration of suspended load of fine sediment in the flow. This process continued till the pores within the coarse sediment bed were filled up to the capacity with the fine sediment transported by the flow in suspension. The theoretical value was identified for limit for maximum proportion of fine sediment that can be present within the pores of bed material. On further increase in the concentration of suspended load of fine sediment in the flow, deposition of fine sediment occurs on the surface of the flume bed in the form of ripples of the fine sediment. This condition is defined as 'depositional condition'. Experimental observations on these and related aspects are presented herein.  相似文献   

Effect of Vertical Wind Shear on Concentration Fluctuation Statistics in a Point Source Plume     

Trevor Hilderman  David J. Wilson 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2008,129(1):65-97

Measurements of concentration fluctuation intensity, intermittency factor, and integral time scale were made in a water channel for a plume dispersing in a well-developed, rough surface, neutrally stable, boundary layer, and in grid-generated turbulence with no mean velocity shear. The water-channel simulations apply to full-scale atmospheric plumes with very short averaging times, on the order of 1–4 min, because plume meandering was suppressed by the water-channel side walls. High spatial and temporal resolution vertical and crosswind profiles of fluctuations in the plume were obtained using a linescan camera laser-induced dye tracer fluorescence technique. A semi-empirical algebraic mean velocity shear history model was developed to predict these concentration statistics. This shear history concentration fluctuation model requires only a minimal set of parameters to be known: atmospheric stability, surface roughness, vertical velocity profile, and vertical and crosswind plume spreads. The universal shear history parameter used was the mean velocity shear normalized by surface friction velocity, plume travel time, and local mean wind speed. The reference height at which this non-dimensional shear history was calculated was important, because both the source and the receptor positions influence the history of particles passing through the receptor position.  相似文献   

Licence Banks as a tool to mitigate corporate control of fisheries: A British Columbia groundfish example     

《Marine Policy》2017

This paper provides an example of how one group of fishermen, operating in an ITQ fishery in British Columbia, Canada, used a licence bank to attempt to mitigate the negative consequences of ITQs. After ten years in operation, the licence bank is self-sustaining and has realized modest and limited success. The authors identify a number of lessons learned from the experience, as well as highlight the opportunities that licence banks offer as an alternative mechanism to redress the negative consequences of ITQs.  相似文献   

The Interference of Higher-Order Statistics of the Concentration Field Produced by Two Point Sources According to a Generalized Fluctuating Plume Model   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Eugene Yee  Ralph M. Gailis  David J. Wilson 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,106(2):297-348

The higher-order correlation functions for the concentrationfluctuations arising from a two-point-source configuration have beencalculated analytically within the context of the phenomenology of afluctuating plume model (viz., a meandering plume model that explicitlyincorporates internal fluctuations). Explicit expressions for thesecond-, third-, and fourth-order correlationfunctions between the concentrationfluctuations produced by two point sources are given in terms of the sourceseparation d and the five physically based parameters that define thegeneralized fluctuating plume model: namely, the absolute plume dispersion,_a, which determines the outer plume length scale; the relative plume dispersion, _r, which determines the inner plume length scale; the fluctuation intensity, i_r, in relative coordinates, which determines the internal concentration fluctuation level; the correlation coefficient, r,between the positions of the centroids of the two interfering plumes; and,the correlation coefficient, r^*, between the concentration fluctuationsof the two plumes in relative coordinates, which determines the degree ofinternal mixing of the two scalars. Furthermore, the form of the totalconcentration probability density function arising from the interferenceproduced by two point sources is presented. Predictions for the second-ordercorrelation function, , and for the total concentration probabilitydensity function have been compared with some new experimental data fora two-point-source configuration in grid turbulence generated in awater-channel simulation. These results are in good agreement with the dataand suggest that the analytical model for the second-order correlationfunction and the total concentration probability density function canreproduce many qualitative trends in the interaction of plumes from twosources.  相似文献   

Concentrations and distribution of trace metals of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> and TSP particles collected in the qingdao area   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Li?XianguoEmail author  Feng?Lijuan  Qi?Jianhua  Chen?Xingmao  Zhang?Manping 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2003,2(2):189-194

Aerosol samples of PM₁₀ (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10μm) and TSP (total suspended particles) were simultaneously collected from April 2001 to March 2002 at the top of Mount Baguan on the downtown campus of Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China. The concentrations of Al, Fe, Mn, Cu, Pb and Zn were determined by means of inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES). The monthly variability of the mass concentrations of aerosol particles and the concentrations of trace metals are presented and discussed. The distribution pattern of these metals in PM₁₀ and TSP is also discussed. During the observation period, the mass concentration of PM₁₀ at this site ranged from 13.80 to 306.42 μgm⁻³, while that of TSP ranged from 31.02 to 568.82μgm⁻³. Both PM₁₀ and TSP reached their highest concentrations in springtime, while the lowest values occurred in summertime. The concentrations of crustal metals followed the same variation pattern, while those of anthropogenic metals did not. A closer examination led to the conclusion that anthropogenic metals are mainly from local sources. The average concentration ratios of anthropogenic metals in PM₁₀ to TSP were higher than the average mass ratio of PM₁₀ to TSP, suggesting that there was a higher proportion of anthropogenic metals on smaller particles although there were a few exceptions. For crustal metals, however, the metal concentration ratios were close to the particle mass ratio, indicating that the distribution of crustal metals was much more homogeneous on aerosol particles with different sizes. The correlation analysis indicated that Al, Fe and Mn were originated from similar sources and were mainly controlled by the particle mass, while Cu, Pb and Zn were predominated by local anthropogenic sources, with Pb and Zn having similar origins.  相似文献   

地球形成理论研究进展     

薛善夫 《地球物理学进展》1996,11(3):1-9

本文概述了太阳系角动量分布，地球的物质来源，地球的形成方式，地核和地幔的形成几个总理研究的进展。  相似文献   

兰州城区稳定能量及其与空气污染的关系   总被引：11，自引：16，他引：11  

尚可政  王式功  杨德保  达存莹  付有智 《高原气象》2001,20(1):76-81

从能量学的观点出发，提出了描述地面至特定高度大气层结构稳定度的参数－稳定能量，并给出了具体计算方法。根据1988－1992年兰州气象站逐日08：00（北京时，下同）的探空资料，计算了300－1000m每隔50m共15层的稳定能量。利用同期兰州市环境监测站自动监测系统监测的兰州城区3种主要空气污染物二氧化硫、一氧化碳和氮氧化物（SO2、CO、NOX）的日平均浓度资料，计算了地面气象要素、低空气象参数、低空风和稳定能量等气象因子与SO2、CO、NOX之间的相关。结果表明：（1）用稳定能量来描述低层大气的稳定性更为合理一些；（2）在诸多气象因子中，稳定能量与SO2、CO、NOX浓度之间的相关性最显著；（3）稳定能量的年变化规律与空气污染浓度的年变化规律基本一致；（4）逐月看，各层稳定能量与SO2浓度之间均为正相关，除7月份以外，大多数层次均通过了α＝0．01显著性水平的相关性检验。  相似文献   

A Study Of The Atmospheric Boundary Layer Using Radon And Air Pollutants As Tracers     

Toshio Kataoka  Eiji Yunoki  Mitsuo Shimizu  Tadashige Mori  Osamu Tsukamoto  Yukitaka Ohashi  Ken Sahashi  Toshihiko Maitani  Koh’ichi Miyashita  Toru Iwata  Yoko Fujikawa  Akira Kudo  Roger H. Shaw 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2001,101(2):131-156

Concentrations of radon ²²²Rn andair pollutants, meteorological parametersnear the surface and vertical profiles of meteorological elements were measured atUchio (Okayama City, Okayama Prefecture, Japan) 12 km north from the coast ofthe Inland Sea of Japan. In the nighttime, the ²²²Rn concentration increased in the case of weak winds, but did not increase as much in the case of moderate or strong winds, as had been expected. In the daytime, the ²²²Rn concentrationheld at a slightly higher than average level for the period from sunrise to about 1100 JST. It is considered that this phenomenon is due to a period of morning calm, that is, a transition period from land breeze to sea breeze.NO, which is sensitive to traffic volume,brought information concerning advection.Oxidant concentrations,which reflect the availability of sunlight,acted in the reverse manner to ²²²Rnconcentrations. Thus, a set of ²²²Rn and air pollutants could provide useful information regarding the local conditions of the atmospheric boundary layer.  相似文献   

九岭及武功隆起高岭土矿床成矿特征及应用初探     

钱国华 《矿产与地质》2001,15(Z1):416-419

根据对赣西(九岭、武功)高岭土成矿地质条件的分析,探讨该区寻找花岗岩类风化残积型高岭土矿床成矿地质特征和工业利用问题.  相似文献